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"Dispersion should manifest in potential fallen angel credits that are likely to proliferate"
1 year ago
IG and crossover names present a compelling alternative to shorting HY credit -
"All that remains is to thank all of you who have kept faith with my monthly confessions of insanity"
1 year ago
With the economic outlook now beyond a joke, Welshcake signs off amid denials he is actually a Welsh footballer -
“Pension fund managers should look to take advantage of a rare opportunity in corporate CDS”
1 year ago
The October sell-off in gilts highlights a glaring lack of exposure to CDS -
"This ‘higher rates for longer’ saga is more like the 1920-21 depression than the 1970s high inflation era"
1 year ago
Sometimes you have to swallow your medicine and take a step back to go forwards -
"Forget the World Cup, the macro-economic catastrophe cup has more well-matched contenders"
1 year ago
Government bonds are rallying in some quarters, but the odds are on more stress feeding into credit -
"Value persists in IG, but higher interest rates are a threat. Opening the synthetic toolbox can help"
1 year ago
Fiscal and monetary policy are pulling in opposite directions, but value in IG can be accessed via CDS and CSOs -
"If anything is to be salvaged from the rest of 2022, the economy needs a hero — and quickly"
1 year ago
Something has gotta give as a recession looms in the US. Might it be energy? -
"The shutdown of economies in the pandemic showed it’s better to suffer up front"
1 year ago
Rather than prolong the agony, central banks would be better off bunching their planned rate hikes into one -
"It’ll take something special to drag my attention away from Depp/Heard, but Jerome Powell could just do it"
2 years ago
It’s not easy letting go of the past, but May heralds the start of something new in credit -
"Derivative longs versus cash corporate shorts looks attractive, especially if we see a market sell-off"
2 years ago
Technicals are keeping cash credit spreads tight, but as central banks reduce purchases there will be relative value opportunities -
Points up front: "It’s all me, me, me"
2 years ago
A study last month by the University of Marburg found that narcissistic fund managers are up to 34% more likely to deviate from their advertised investment style, and they tend to underperform non-narcissists. -
"The loan market is the septic tank for sub-single B LBO financing"
2 years ago
Portfolios of single name IG CDS are less complex and more liquid than CLOs -
"Pivot points in curves may not stay where they have been historically"
2 years ago
CTAs and CSOs are changing the way credit curves move -
They said it: "The third term is Jinping’s legacy..."
2 years ago
... He does not care about near-term growth." -
"Credit investors should interpret 100,000 Russian troops on the Ukrainian border as worth pricing in"
2 years ago
Welshcake tells credit portfolio managers to under-promise and over-deliver in 2022 -
"If omicron paradoxically lowers the temperature of the market, that may be no bad thing"
2 years ago
The global economy is well protected against omicron — and a mild infection may be beneficial -
"No-one talks about the part oil price surges played in the 2008/9 global financial crisis"
2 years ago
Investors eyeing inflation shocks and supply chain disruption should instead be paying attention to the brewing energy crisis -
"Growth in credit products lets investors express sector-specific views as dispersion ticks higher"
2 years ago
Investors can use ETFs, volatility dispersion swaps or even bond baskets to trade dispersion -
Points up front: Definitely not an ex-parrot
2 years ago
One of the biggest credit fund launches last month was Arini, led by star credit trader Hamza Lemssouguer -
"If ESG funds only talk the talk, it is because investors, legislators and regulators don’t walk the walk"
2 years ago
Whatever an ESG fund means to you, it probably means something different to the next investor -
"There are concerns about volatile sectors in high yield, but IG may be vulnerable to macro changes"
2 years ago
High yield has heavier exposure to energy and travel credits, but IG has more rate duration -
“For Creditflux this will be an extra special occasion - the publication is marking its 20th year in business”
2 years ago
A colourful train journey featuring Alice in Wonderland, Yoda and Top Trumps puts Welshcake in mind of the CLO Symposium -
"Pain is on the way: spreads are too tight, while compression and carry are done. But what if it's not?"
2 years ago
Welshcake reminds us that mid-cycle portfolio management is a funny old game -
"In the afternoon I awoke from a pile of willow leaves to discover we had created a Welsh ether-based token"
2 years ago
A localised crypto-currency boom and bust cycle teaches Welshcake (again) that everything becomes correlated in a downturn -
Past returns: Having a whale of a time in tranches
2 years ago
In Creditflux 10 years ago we reported on JP Morgan’s “little known prop book” making waves in index tranches
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