A strong year for CLO strategies
After the pain of 2022, credit fund managers must have been praying that 2023 turned out better. It did.

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory

You seem familiar
The overlap between European CLOs has risen to 51.6%, but the largest issuers are only slightly more aligned to their peers at 55.19% — so bonds are proving to be an important differentiator

I’ll see your 2020 and raise you 2021
Discounted loans, Libor floors and bond flexibility helped make 2021 an even better year for CLO returns than 2020, as US CLOs distributed 15.54% and European CLOs paid 13.93% annualised

An alternative way of looking at CLO overlap
Analysing CLO collateral to look for overlap is critical for any CLO investor, but it is normally done either within a portfolio of CLOs or by bilaterally comparing two managers. In one of its latest research pieces, Moody’s Analytics has taken a different approach

2020 CLOs find redemption is sweet
The believers have been vindicated with 2020 CLOs among the best-performing of all time by IRR. Even those that have been reset have been a success with par flushes making for huge equity distributions.

Coronavirus tiers up old ranking script
Forget everything you thought you knew about CLO manager tiers. Apollo and Blackstone are mainstays, but smaller, more nimble issuers are finding new ways to stand out from the crowd

Lighten up, these are due an upgrade
CLO triple C buckets were overflowing last year, but the average exposure is now 7.3%. That is still close to trigger levels, but CLO managers are relaxed, as further loan upgrades are on the horizon

CLOs come up smelling of roses
The coronavirus crisis could have cut back 10 years of CLO market progress, but investors’ foresight, trading chops and flexibility meant many saw their strategies blossom during 2020  

Moving fast pays off for hedge funds
2020 was an up and down year in credit, and credit hedge fund managers had to move quickly to capture opportunities from the dislocations that inevitably opened up

We were battered in 2020 — but we weren’t beaten
The CLO industry has survived a year blighted by covid-19. We talk to portfolio managers about the strengths of CLOs and preparations for what was expected to be a ‘cataclysmic’ recession

All’s well that ends well in 2020 OC tests
Swathes of CLOs failed over-collateralisation tests last year, but unlike the drawn-out recovery following the 2008 financial crisis, the return to compliance after the covid-19 crash was rapid 

Chin up – it’s been a pretty good effort
CLO managers did well to survive the covid-19 crash in loan valuations — but they failed to fully capitalise on the ensuing volatility, say participants in the Creditflux CLO Census 2020

Elements work against CLO managers in Q3
CLO equity distributions fell in Q3 largely due to factors, such as Libor mismatches, that CLO managers can’t control. But these headwinds could turn in favour of managers in the near future

It’s been a while — how’s tricks?

Managers weigh up matters of principal
CLO managers that were able to avoid OC traps made double-digit equity distributions in Q2, despite the headwinds. But these firms tended not to be among those that built the most par

Loan slump brings managers closer
A 19% slide in new US loan volumes last year has left CLO managers with fewer options in the primary market, and portfolio overlap between US managers has increased to 35.3% on average

Credit pickers need luck to avoid OC trap
We know what you’re thinking: is my CLO failing its OC test? The truth is, in all this volatility, it can be hard to keep track, unless your deal has high quality liquid loans

 

Fund performance: Index tranche investors make it work from home
March brought a drastic drop in return figures as covid-19 swept across the globe, as Orchard tops the Creditflux performance tables

Ucits at a glance: Long-short credit capitalises on coronavirus
Ucits funds were not spared from the crash in mid-March, but Pictet outperforms

Loan market finds balance as spreads edge wider
New issue volumes were robust in July with relatively few loan refinancings getting done. Loan portfolio managers say the loan market is finally balanced, having been in favour of borrowers

Managers spot opportunity as leveraged loans soften
An abundance of US leveraged loan issuance helped soften secondary prices even though the overall market is highly bid. Meanwhile, investors’ preference for floating rate paper hit high yield

Higher leverage is on the horizon - but, for now, take in the MFN sunsets
It’s clear from our analysis of most favoured nation protections and sunsets that strong demand for loans is enabling borrowers to insist on advantageous terms even as they increase leverage

Managers pick spots on CLO curve
As refi volumes slowed through 2017, the term curve for CLOs steepened, leading managers to vary their deal tenors as they sought to hit the evolving sweet spot.