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Credit Rendezvous: Make yourself comfortable, there’s a storm coming
1 year ago
In our Q1 outlook, we speak to Edwin Wilches, PGIM (US CLOs), Mikkel Sckerl and Flemming Dose, Capital Four (European CLOs), Jim Fitzpatrick, CQS (US loans), Loic Prevot, Polus (European loans), Madelaine Jones, Oaktree (global high yield), Art Penn, Pennant Park (US direct lending), Mattis Poetter, Arcmont (European direct lending), Keerthi Raghavan, Waterfall (structured credit), Ray Costa, Benefit Street (distressed), Grant Webster, Ninety One (Emerging markets), Oumar Diallo, Aeon (real assets) for their views for the upcoming quarter. -
"This ‘higher rates for longer’ saga is more like the 1920-21 depression than the 1970s high inflation era"
1 year ago
Sometimes you have to swallow your medicine and take a step back to go forwards -
Fund performance: Wake us up when September ends
1 year ago
After a resurgent August, credit markets hit a rough patch in September, with every Creditflux index posting negative returns, and only 12.9% of funds in our listings showing a positive return. -
Credit faces blind spot as borrowers enter higher default cycle: BNP Paribas
1 year ago
With short term rates outstripping nominal GDP growth, the credit cycle is entering its next and final stage – one in which corporate defaults will pick up but high quality borrowers should outperform -
"Value persists in IG, but higher interest rates are a threat. Opening the synthetic toolbox can help"
1 year ago
Fiscal and monetary policy are pulling in opposite directions, but value in IG can be accessed via CDS and CSOs -
Spreads trace worryingly familiar arc as investors take good news as bad and bad new worse
2 years ago
Credit spreads are pushing ever closer towards the year’s peak levels, continuing Wednesday a sell off that began on Tuesday, with positive US economic data perversely sparking a bearish shift in financial assets that negative European data has since compounded -
Credit PM pair seek galaxy of opportunities with long/short fund manager launch
2 years ago
Two experienced portfolio managers have set up a new venture to take advantage of volatile markets -
Real estate is about to get real bad: Welshcake
2 years ago
The extent of disconnect between real estate and what other markets have been experiencing is enough to convince me a whole other layer of economic mayhem is on the way. But investors in credit, for all their current pain, could still end up shining if they are prepared -
"Derivative longs versus cash corporate shorts looks attractive, especially if we see a market sell-off"
2 years ago
Technicals are keeping cash credit spreads tight, but as central banks reduce purchases there will be relative value opportunities -
"If omicron paradoxically lowers the temperature of the market, that may be no bad thing"
2 years ago
The global economy is well protected against omicron — and a mild infection may be beneficial -
"No-one talks about the part oil price surges played in the 2008/9 global financial crisis"
2 years ago
Investors eyeing inflation shocks and supply chain disruption should instead be paying attention to the brewing energy crisis -
China teaches tough lessons to foreign investors
China’s regulatory crackdown on some of its fastest-growing industries created shockwaves that have reverberated widely, dragging on US and European credit at the end of July. -
Publishing boost for French firm but China sours wider market
3 years ago
Lagardere is a notable positive outlier in another off day for the credit market, after China turmoil rocked stocks and sent spreads wider -
"IG investors might want to rethink the instrument, but they need not fear rising rates just yet"
3 years ago
In his latest column for Creditflux, Cheyne's Duncan Sankey writes that the sharp rise in 10-year US treasuries could be positive for investment grade investors, but value is in CDS rather than bonds -
Compression trades grind into gear as spreads narrow
3 years ago
Compression between high yield and investment grade credit looks to be finally gaining traction in February, having been identified by some strategists at the start of the year as a key 2021 theme -
Curves and skews come back into play as CDS volumes swell
4 years ago
The rapid growth of the CDS market during the coronavirus pandemic has been consolidated in the second quarter, with investors putting on trades not seen in such volume since the 2008 financial crisis. -
Index tranche volumes go into overdrive as CSOs stall
4 years ago
CDS index tranche trading has gathered pace during the coronavirus pandemic, putting the asset class on course for a post-2008 crisis record. -
There will surely be jewels in the high yield dung heap, but the risk-reward is more compelling in IG
4 years ago
Whatever the long-term effects of the pandemic, one thing stays the same: IG looks attractive -
Where are the gloating I-told-you-so columnists who claimed CLOs would bring global destruction?
4 years ago
We have seen a measured response to the coronavirus crisis: fund managers aren’t collapsing and investors are not shunning CLOs -
CSOs are hurting but will emerge stronger, say sources
4 years ago
It is unsurprising that bespoke synthetic tranches have suffered during the covid-19 crisis, as they are backed largely by real money investors that have gone outright long credit risk. But more noteworthy and reassuring, say sources, is that most have held firm in their positions and look set to stick with the asset class — in contrast to the 2008 global financial crisis exodus -
Axiom bets on 2002-style credit recovery with crossover fund launch
4 years ago
Axiom Alternative Investments is readying to launch a fund aimed at generating returns from the dislocation and revival of European and US credit as the coronavirus pandemic develops -
Miscast as the villains of the 2008 crisis, CDS may prove to be the heroes of 2020
4 years ago
Credit default swaps provide investors with valuable signals on the depth of the coronavirus crisis -
‘Hoard credit’ says PM as markets swing
4 years ago
As Creditflux went to press, the covid-19 death toll in Italy surged by 700 after two days of slowing, and the US congress agreed a $2 trillion stimulus package. -
Credit traders' kickstand: rolling with the pain, as relative value trades come unstuck
4 years ago
What a difference a month - and a pandemic - make. This time in February, no-one could have imagined a global financial crisis would be unfolding, that credit performance would be a battle between a virus and some of the biggest government and central bank interventions on record, that today's iTraxx Europe and CDX index rolls would traverse unprecedented ranges, that option expiry strikes would be blown beyond recognition, or that cash and CDS differentials would be whipsawing with such violence -
CDS index rolls to proceed on time despite record volatility and lockdowns
4 years ago
This Friday's move into new CDS index series will go ahead as scheduled, administrator IHS Markit has said, having sought advice on whether to postpone the roll date due to coronavirus-led market volatility
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