How many CLOs will be reset?
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs

Banks predict steady year ahead
It’s the season for predictions and the CLO market is no exception, with all the banks having their say. We’ve rounded up their forecasts for new issuance and resets in the US and Europe

European CLOs win out against US deals
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches.

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory

We can cope with downgrades again

Arb work pays off
With day-one arbitrage alone delivering projected CLO cash-on-cash returns of 20-25%, 2021 may have been the best year ever for equity investors — at least until CLO spreads began to widen  

I’ll see your 2020 and raise you 2021
Discounted loans, Libor floors and bond flexibility helped make 2021 an even better year for CLO returns than 2020, as US CLOs distributed 15.54% and European CLOs paid 13.93% annualised

These CLO docs could be better
It seems there’s not much to worry about if you’re in the CLO market. In Creditflux’s CLO Census, voters said docs should follow a template as Jefferies, AGL and Hayfin emerge as rising stars

Woah, we’re halfway there
Judging by the 2020 vintage, European CLO overlap is 50%. But varied approaches to holding bonds and the many loans managers turn down mean there are ways for issuers to outperform

Waiting for afters
Day one arb remains important, but last year there were opportunities aplenty in the secondary market, which put the onus on printing CLOs and waiting for the day after non-call periods expired

At least 2020 wasn’t dreadful for CLOs
Last year’s downturn was another in which CLOs survived and in many cases thrived as active management and Libor floors helped managers deliver 13%-plus returns to equity

Chin up – it’s been a pretty good effort
CLO managers did well to survive the covid-19 crash in loan valuations — but they failed to fully capitalise on the ensuing volatility, say participants in the Creditflux CLO Census 2020

Elements work against CLO managers in Q3
CLO equity distributions fell in Q3 largely due to factors, such as Libor mismatches, that CLO managers can’t control. But these headwinds could turn in favour of managers in the near future

It’s been a while — how’s tricks?

Managers weigh up matters of principal
CLO managers that were able to avoid OC traps made double-digit equity distributions in Q2, despite the headwinds. But these firms tended not to be among those that built the most par

Europe’s newcomers find ways to stand out
Last year’s new European CLO managers needed to provide something different for investors. In general, they’ve succeeded, with Capital Four having one of the smallest overlap figures in our data

Credit pickers need luck to avoid OC trap
We know what you’re thinking: is my CLO failing its OC test? The truth is, in all this volatility, it can be hard to keep track, unless your deal has high quality liquid loans

 

Moving on from the late 2018 hangover
It might be too early to call a full recovery, but it’s fair to say that the US loan market is back on track with $48 billion of institutional issuance in 2019 — 88% of which is made up of new issues

Loans recover slightly after late-2018 havoc
Secondary loan prices have ticked higher this year, although they are still some way off the levels reached before the fourth quarter slump. However, M&As are starting to fill the new issue pipeline
 

Keep calm and buy corporate loans
Calm heads prevailed in 2018. Markets were volatile and risk retention was supposed to cause problems, but there was no need to panic and volumes went on to break records set in 2014

Retail fund pain is a CLO manager’s gain
Retail funds dumped loans in record volumes late in 2018, creating ideal conditions for CLOs to capitalise with performing credits available in the mid-90s for the first time in years

Buy and hold isn’t only option for CLO equity
New US CLO equity is being more regularly flipped into b-wics. Figures suggest that equity pieces of 2017 and 2018 US deals made up 22% of the b-wic market over the past four quarters

Widening whisks market back to 2017
Right now, CLO volumes are healthy and the list of active managers is steadily growing. But with CLO liability spreads reverting to where they were a year ago, some issuers are a little nervous.

New issues keep managers busy in summer season
New issue loans made up 74.1% of volumes in August, supporting US CLO managers looking to ramp up. Spreads tightened to 368bp, but managers can’t complain — it’s much better than in Q1