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What do reset deals have in common?
1 month ago
Is it possible to predict which deals are likely to be reset next? With reset mania continuing to grip the US CLO market, we search for common factors among 2014-2021 deals that were reset -
How many CLOs will be reset?
2 months ago
Tightening liability spreads aren’t just driving record new CLO issuance this year — they’re also triggering a wave of resets and refinancings in the US, especially for broadly syndicated CLOs -
How many CLOs will be called this year?
2 months ago
Most CLOs are called when loan market prices are high. Distributions and equity NAV are also important, and they suggest that over 30 2017 and 2018 deals are now ripe for redemption -
Ask the market where spreads are heading
3 months ago
Nothing brings the CLO market together like a good moan about the state of the arb. But according to our data, the arbitrage for new-issue US CLOs has remained in the same range for years. -
Banks predict steady year ahead
5 months ago
It’s the season for predictions and the CLO market is no exception, with all the banks having their say. We’ve rounded up their forecasts for new issuance and resets in the US and Europe -
How worried should we be about defaults?
5 months ago
As defaults in the US loan market continue to stack up, we investigate the fallout for CLO investors by focusing on the OC tests of double B tranches across 10 years of US CLO vintages -
European CLOs win out against US deals
7 months ago
Last month, our analysis explored the performance of US CLOs that were previously reset. We found that they delivered higher distributions than deals which weren’t reset, with the exception of the 2017 and 2018 vintages (Creditflux September 2023 — Do resets help CLOs perform better?). This article expands that analysis to the European market, and compares the performance of US BSL and EU CLO equity tranches. -
Do resets help CLOs perform better?
8 months ago
As the market for CLO resets opens, we look at the performance of deals that were previously reset, and find they soon deliver higher distributions than those deals that were not reset -
Are we ready for another crisis?
1 year ago
Credit managers must brace themselves for stress in 2023, as rates rise and the number of poor performing assets increases. But most CLOs look well-placed and can rely on plump OC cushions -
Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory -
What matters is what you do with it
1 year ago
CLO managers yearn for flexibility so they can take advantage when credit sells off. But it isn’t enough on its own: triple C-flex CLOs saw portfolios erode this year, while CBOs outperformed -
We can cope with downgrades again
Having overcome one loan downgrade wave in 2020, the CLO market is now facing another. But this time CLOs are defensively positioned, and managers have a chance to adjust portfolios1 year ago -
Arb work pays off
2 years ago
With day-one arbitrage alone delivering projected CLO cash-on-cash returns of 20-25%, 2021 may have been the best year ever for equity investors — at least until CLO spreads began to widen -
I’ll see your 2020 and raise you 2021
2 years ago
Discounted loans, Libor floors and bond flexibility helped make 2021 an even better year for CLO returns than 2020, as US CLOs distributed 15.54% and European CLOs paid 13.93% annualised -
CLO managers show respect to their elders
2 years ago
Alongside lucrative new issues, managers also make time for refinancing and resetting old deals. Our data shows that, in 2021, mid-sized firms were the most effective at this balancing act -
These CLO docs could be better
2 years ago
It seems there’s not much to worry about if you’re in the CLO market. In Creditflux’s CLO Census, voters said docs should follow a template as Jefferies, AGL and Hayfin emerge as rising stars -
Still plenty more fish in the triple C
US CLO triple C buckets are lighter than a year ago thanks to the wave of loan upgrades from Moody’s and S&P. But 48% of downgraded paper is yet to return to a coveted single B rating2 years ago -
Coronavirus tiers up old ranking script
2 years ago
Forget everything you thought you knew about CLO manager tiers. Apollo and Blackstone are mainstays, but smaller, more nimble issuers are finding new ways to stand out from the crowd -
Woah, we’re halfway there
3 years ago
Judging by the 2020 vintage, European CLO overlap is 50%. But varied approaches to holding bonds and the many loans managers turn down mean there are ways for issuers to outperform -
CLOs come up smelling of roses
3 years ago
The coronavirus crisis could have cut back 10 years of CLO market progress, but investors’ foresight, trading chops and flexibility meant many saw their strategies blossom during 2020 -
CLOs wheel and deal as overlap increases
3 years ago
2020 CLOs are a different breed to any other vintage. But this cohort features an overlap of almost 40% as CLO issuers have been forced to focus almost entirely on secondary market loans -
Waiting for afters
3 years ago
Day one arb remains important, but last year there were opportunities aplenty in the secondary market, which put the onus on printing CLOs and waiting for the day after non-call periods expired -
At least 2020 wasn’t dreadful for CLOs
3 years ago
Last year’s downturn was another in which CLOs survived and in many cases thrived as active management and Libor floors helped managers deliver 13%-plus returns to equity -
Chin up – it’s been a pretty good effort
3 years ago
CLO managers did well to survive the covid-19 crash in loan valuations — but they failed to fully capitalise on the ensuing volatility, say participants in the Creditflux CLO Census 2020 -
Elements work against CLO managers in Q3
3 years ago
CLO equity distributions fell in Q3 largely due to factors, such as Libor mismatches, that CLO managers can’t control. But these headwinds could turn in favour of managers in the near future
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