Do defaults predict equity returns?
At first glance, recently redeemed European CLOs show some sort of correlation between final IRR and the number of defaults in their portfolio. But what other factors affect performance?

The wall is coming down
Refis and extensions have greatly reduced the height of the maturity wall looming over European CLOs in the near term — but, further out, WAL test cushions remain critical

CLO Census: It’s time to put the shop in order
After a lacklustre year for the CLO market, the 539 respondents to our comprehensive survey are increasingly calling for structural changes, from electronic trading to standardised documents

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

Treble top: CSAM wins best manager again
Returning to the Landmark Hotel in London, the 2023 Creditflux manager awards looked back at a year that saw the CLO market in flux. After the stability of 2021, the markets hit a rocky patch and US CLO triple As ranged from 110-290 basis points.

Rope-a-dope brings knock-out returns
Post-pandemic US and European CLOs delivered mid-teen equity returns in 2022, despite a barrage of weak macroeconomic news and what could have been a heavyweight Libor mismatch  

We made the most of a tricky situation
The contrast between 2021 and the following 12 months could not have been starker. But although some heavy hitters remained on the sidelines, 94 US CLO managers priced new deals in 2022

Not every CLO can be a winner
The CLO industry has undeniably performed well enough to justify the plaudits it receives. But there will always be some unloved CLO tranches that slip into triple C territory

Weren’t there more of us than this?
According to this year’s Creditflux CLO Census, the CLO industry is not feeling optimistic. Some investors have vanished and managers have not taken advantage of helpful market conditions

Can someone call the triple A? We’ve stalled
CLO issuers are in need of AAA roadside assistance. Despite the emergence of new buyers, a lack of senior CLO investors — particularly US banks — has brought the primary market to a halt  

You seem familiar
The overlap between European CLOs has risen to 51.6%, but the largest issuers are only slightly more aligned to their peers at 55.19% — so bonds are proving to be an important differentiator

Arb work pays off
With day-one arbitrage alone delivering projected CLO cash-on-cash returns of 20-25%, 2021 may have been the best year ever for equity investors — at least until CLO spreads began to widen  

HY fund is exception to rule of CLOs
CLO funds have had back-to-back years of outperformance versus credit, proving the asset class is a great place to invest, rain or shine. But a Wasserstein HY fund was the star performer in 2021  

I’ll see your 2020 and raise you 2021
Discounted loans, Libor floors and bond flexibility helped make 2021 an even better year for CLO returns than 2020, as US CLOs distributed 15.54% and European CLOs paid 13.93% annualised

These CLO docs could be better
It seems there’s not much to worry about if you’re in the CLO market. In Creditflux’s CLO Census, voters said docs should follow a template as Jefferies, AGL and Hayfin emerge as rising stars

CLO wormhole opens as deal pricing blurs
The CLO prints you see today might have happened a month ago. No, we’re not travelling back in time. Instead, a trend toward locking in senior notes a month early is skewing market pricing

Woah, we’re halfway there
Judging by the 2020 vintage, European CLO overlap is 50%. But varied approaches to holding bonds and the many loans managers turn down mean there are ways for issuers to outperform

Moving fast pays off for hedge funds
2020 was an up and down year in credit, and credit hedge fund managers had to move quickly to capture opportunities from the dislocations that inevitably opened up

Waiting for afters
Day one arb remains important, but last year there were opportunities aplenty in the secondary market, which put the onus on printing CLOs and waiting for the day after non-call periods expired

Rolling the dice on Turkey and Italy
Gambling specialists with operations around the Mediterranean are facing political risks and currency falls – but there are opportunities to hit the jackpot if investors play their cards right

Steelmakers forge links in face of overcapacity

Which flavour do you favour?
We asked four direct lenders for their opinions on four fictional European borrowers operating in software, food, consumer loans and retail – and found they had similar tastes.

Payday: Investors go for broke on regulatory bet
New regulations could seriously hamper US payday lenders – but bond holders are betting the rules won’t be enacted

Spotlight: Satellite operators - sending signals of distress
Satellite operators are trying to transmit optimistic messages – but they admit that prices for data services are falling