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New IACPM survey points to a global recession
9 months ago
Respondents to the latest IACPM Credit Outlook Survey overwhelmingly expect global economies to fall into recession either later this year or sometime in 2024. -
High yield bond index offers opportunities for credit pickers
10 months ago
The global high yield bond market has become a skewed barbell offering benefits to credit pickers, according to a new research note from global asset manager Ninety One. -
Question your assumptions
10 months ago
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal. -
34% of CLOs rated by Fitch out of reinvestment
10 months ago
34% of the CLOs rated by Fitch Ratings have left their reinvestment periods including six deals that exited in May, the rating agency said in a note to clients on Thursday -
More than 45% of Euro CLOs to be out of RP by Q1 2024, Fitch says
11 months ago
More than 45% of Fitch-rated reinvesting European CLOs are anticipated to be out of their reinvestment period by the end of Q1 2024, up from around a third as of April, which could lead to rating pressure for mezzanine tranches in those deals -
Euro CLO exposure to financial sector 'limited', say Fitch
1 year ago
European CLO exposure to the financial sector is 'limited' and CLO ratings will not be impacted by UBS's acquisition of Credit Suisse, according to new data from Fitch Ratings -
Loan trading within European CLOs drops to 0.6%: BofA
1 year ago
European CLO manager trading activity declined sharply this year amid less leveraged loan primary supply and declining secondary liquidity, according to Bank of America research -
Five issuers account for 22% of Euro CLO triple Cs: BofA
1 year ago
22% of triple C-rated debt in European CLOs originates from just five issuers, according to analysis from Bank of America research this morning -
Largarde snowballs puncture complacent calm and shocks spreads wider
1 year ago
Credit markets are ending the week on a big push wider, after European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde delivered the surprise that had been missing from other central bank messaging -
Major fund withdrawals undermine credit momentum
1 year ago
Credit funds are extending their run of inflows into the end of the year, but investment grade momentum took a dent last week due to investors in one big fund pulling their money -
European CLO equity outperforms single Bs amid high return dispersion: Bank of America
1 year ago
European CLO returns have been negative across the capital structure this year, a research paper from Bank of America has found. Losses have been softened however due to an increasing three-month Euribor rate, high carry relative to corporates and relatively stable equity returns. -
Capex and real yields will split winners from losers in '23: BofA
1 year ago
Companies able to undertake capital expenditure will be the winners in 2023, while those historically most sensitive to rising real yields should inspire caution, say Bank of America strategists -
Rebuke for optimism as US jobs send market bulls running for cover
1 year ago
Investors’ determination to maintain an optimistic outlook on US Federal Reserve policy hit a point of reckoning on Friday, with hot US jobs numbers adding weight to committee members’ message that there is still a lot more work for them to do -
Euro CLOs have better 2023 entry point than US in $140 billion issuance year: Barclays
1 year ago
CLO performance and issuance may have to wait until the second half of next year for improvement, say Barclays credit strategists in a 2023 outlook piece. But Europe could fare better than the US given starting levels in a year the market faces some challenging regulatory hurdles -
Euro CLO new issuance could reach €22 billion in 2023, says BofA
1 year ago
European CLO new issuance will reach €22 billion in 2023, strategists at Bank of America expect, while refinancing / reset volume should reach €3 billion under a ‘base case’ scenario -
Powell outlook brings risk buyers out in droves, but reality check looks soon to follow
1 year ago
Comments by US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday on the pace of future rate hikes have prompted a sharp rally across global financial markets, including credit. But dissenting voices have already begun to point out the enthusiasm is likely overdone -
Credit Suisse tests investor nerves as market preps for Fed-focused week
1 year ago
Credit Suisse, which has been subjected to another week of intense scrutiny, is heading into the weekend with its credit spreads extending wider, after warning on losses and undertaking a capital hike -
Swiss bank looks to plug holes but investors are hun-gruyere for risk
1 year ago
Credit Suisse is a rare, worrisome cloud in an otherwise brightening sky this week, as Europe extends its tightening trend in credit with the US standing at ease for the Thanksgiving holiday -
Outsized corporate rally puts financials RV in focus
1 year ago
The week is ending with resumption of credit’s recent rally after a brief pause, and Europe once again taking the lead over the US -
Things are looking up... for curve steepener trades: Barclays
1 year ago
Investment grade credit index curves look too flat, say Barclays strategists – and that makes it a compelling time to consider steepener trades in Europe and the US -
European outperformance creates index options trading mismatch: Barclays
1 year ago
The recent outperformance of European credit over US has shifted the value of iTraxx index options, but CDX index volatility premiums stand out for having hit a new low -
Financials offer relative value opportunities after synthetic credit overshoot: BNP Paribas
1 year ago
A technical squeeze, driven by investor risk appetite but also short covering, has taken some parts of the synthetic credit to a point where cash bonds look to offer better relative value -
Credit euphoria follows CPI, but analysts warn of comedown
1 year ago
Softer than expected US inflation numbers have ignited a spectacular rally in financial markets. But strategists and economists warn against the exuberance, arguing more pain is likely on the way -
Soft mood music abruptly dashed as Fed and BoE rile markets
1 year ago
The credit market’s strong run of improvement has come to an end this week, with the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England delivering a reality check to hopes of a more dovish path forward on interest rates -
Credit faces blind spot as borrowers enter higher default cycle: BNP Paribas
1 year ago
With short term rates outstripping nominal GDP growth, the credit cycle is entering its next and final stage – one in which corporate defaults will pick up but high quality borrowers should outperform
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