Banks predict steady year ahead
It’s the season for predictions and the CLO market is no exception, with all the banks having their say. We’ve rounded up their forecasts for new issuance and resets in the US and Europe

Question your assumptions
Valuing CLO paper is complicated, and loan prepayments are one of the trickiest parts. When pricing a new issue CLO, the market generally assumes that 15-20% of loans will prepay their principal annually. This prepayment rate is important because it essentially determines the pace at which a CLO’s rated debt is paid off after the reinvestment period, when the CLO pays down its own principal.

You seem familiar
The overlap between European CLOs has risen to 51.6%, but the largest issuers are only slightly more aligned to their peers at 55.19% — so bonds are proving to be an important differentiator

An alternative way of looking at CLO overlap
Analysing CLO collateral to look for overlap is critical for any CLO investor, but it is normally done either within a portfolio of CLOs or by bilaterally comparing two managers. In one of its latest research pieces, Moody’s Analytics has taken a different approach

Chin up – it’s been a pretty good effort
CLO managers did well to survive the covid-19 crash in loan valuations — but they failed to fully capitalise on the ensuing volatility, say participants in the Creditflux CLO Census 2020

Elements work against CLO managers in Q3
CLO equity distributions fell in Q3 largely due to factors, such as Libor mismatches, that CLO managers can’t control. But these headwinds could turn in favour of managers in the near future

Updated, upgraded and ready to launch
Whether it’s a software update or a full-blown upgrade to a newer model, CLO technology is advancing fast, with Be-Spoke and Ellington the latest to launch new types of securitisations

Evolving strategy takes Norinchukin close to top spot in CLO investment
Over the years, Nochu has tweaked its cov-lite stipulations, and added mid market and European CLO exposure to its CLO investments. It’s now nearly the market’s biggest investor  

Managers pick spots on CLO curve
As refi volumes slowed through 2017, the term curve for CLOs steepened, leading managers to vary their deal tenors as they sought to hit the evolving sweet spot.

Leading fund: Lupus Alpha CLO Opportunity Notes I
Single-B CLO trades boost Lupus Alpha asset Management

Who cares about risk retention?
Managers watching CLO spreads reach their tightest levels since the crisis had little time to fret about US risk retention