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Credit investors find bright spots in gloomy outlook: Credit Rendezvous Q4 2022
1 year ago
Clouds are looming over financial markets as the fourth quarter begins — so investors are moving away from diversified approaches in favour of tailored investments and relative value plays -
Secondary CLOs stand firm as credit markets take a hit
1 year ago
Macro weakness is seeping into credit with CDS indices gapping wider and US loans suffering a setback after dropping below 95 points this week. Traders say the CLO secondary market has reflected this turn in sentiment, with did-not-trades racking up – although spreads have held up better than other parts of the credit market -
CFOs stage comeback as fundraising tool for managers
1 year ago
Collateralised fund obligations are coming back into fashion, with Churchill Asset Management the latest firm to launch such an offering after announcing a $700 million deal last month. -
Real estate is about to get real bad: Welshcake
1 year ago
The extent of disconnect between real estate and what other markets have been experiencing is enough to convince me a whole other layer of economic mayhem is on the way. But investors in credit, for all their current pain, could still end up shining if they are prepared -
"The shutdown of economies in the pandemic showed it’s better to suffer up front"
1 year ago
Rather than prolong the agony, central banks would be better off bunching their planned rate hikes into one -
Duration, decompression and dispersion disconnects grow
1 year ago
Investors’ reassessment of the time they may need to hold on to positions — as well as the limited opportunity for some borrowers to access new capital — are adding to a growing list of factors causing credit market prices to disconnect -
Points up front: Making a meal of the arb
1 year ago
Credit market participants are always looking at the best arbitrage opportunity and right now that seems to be at McDonald’s -
Wide yields mean high times again for corporate hybrids
1 year ago
Prolonged disruption in financial markets has painted an ever-bleaker picture for credit fund returns and flows in 2022 -
"Derivative longs versus cash corporate shorts looks attractive, especially if we see a market sell-off"
2 years ago
Technicals are keeping cash credit spreads tight, but as central banks reduce purchases there will be relative value opportunities -
Macro drivers set to give lift to CDS tranche trading
2 years ago
Credit index tranches look to be on course for a busy year, with volumes robust so far in 2022, despite key relative value trading themes having not delivered so far -
Credit Rendezvous: Pass masters
2 years ago
Most often, a credit market downturn has its roots mired in one big, blatant obstacle that credit managers have to focus their attention to overcome. But right now, it’s not the dominant risk factor that has to be defeated, it’s the sheer number of them... -
Banks and loans to benefit in 2022 as safe havens dwindle
2 years ago
Safe havens and sector pitfalls are among some of the top considerations for portfolio managers this year, as a consensus forms that credit could suffer versus other asset classes -
Relative value traders seize on fleeting mismatches
2 years ago
The volatility that hit credit markets from mid-November has produced rare opportunities for relative value traders after a dearth for 12 months -
"Growth in credit products lets investors express sector-specific views as dispersion ticks higher"
2 years ago
Investors can use ETFs, volatility dispersion swaps or even bond baskets to trade dispersion -
Zais and BNP Paribas strike ESG breakthrough with climate change CSO
2 years ago
The growing theme of environmental, social and governance standards helping to revitalise the market for collateralised synthetic obligations appears to have taken a big step forward, with Zais Group and BNP Paribas partnering on a first-of-its-kind deal that could lay a template for future transactions -
"There are concerns about volatile sectors in high yield, but IG may be vulnerable to macro changes"
2 years ago
High yield has heavier exposure to energy and travel credits, but IG has more rate duration -
Broadening SRT market defies spread compression
2 years ago
Credit spreads are close to all time tights — high yield, courtesy of CDX HY, recently hit its tightest level since January 2007 — but the significant risk transfer (SRT) market is one of the few pockets of credit where pricing is wide of pre-covid levels -
China teaches tough lessons to foreign investors
China’s regulatory crackdown on some of its fastest-growing industries created shockwaves that have reverberated widely, dragging on US and European credit at the end of July. -
Coronavirus delta dilemma puts reflation trades into reverse
2 years ago
Concern over the covid-19 delta variant dented investor optimism in July and looks set to hold back credit spread improvement in August, as focus turns to rising cases in the US and Germany -
It's all relative: IG index drifts wide of 50bp as European CLO triple Bs outperform
2 years ago
US investment grade credit has been an underperformer in the last few weeks with CDX IG trading north of 50 basis points again. But European CLO triple Bs are looking strong while there is a stronger bid for two- to three-year paper in the US -
Credit Rendezvous: And breathe...
2 years ago
The unanimous verdict is that credit spreads will be moving wider – they have to. But the difficulty credit fund managers face is predicting when the next sell-off comes and how sharp it will be. In the Q3 instalment of Creditflux’s Credit Rendezvous, the over-riding message from portfolio managers is that there’s little point in taking on too much risk. The report features the views of prominent credit figures including Paul Horvath (Orchard), Himani Trivedi (Nuveen), Ronnie Jaber (Onex), Graham Rainbow (Alcentra) and Michelle Russell-Dowe (Schroders). The report looks at 14 segments of the market including CLOs, direct lending, leveraged loans, distressed debt and credit derivatives. -
It's all relative: CDX HY touches record tights but junior US CLO tranches leak wider
2 years ago
Credit spreads are marching tighter, but someone forgot to tell the CLO market. European and US CDS spreads have moved in step with each other for the most part with investment grade and high yield tightening 4-6% in the last week, whereas CLOs have been losing ground -
Climate change pair trade delivers as oil companies' CDS widens
2 years ago
A climate change pair trade proposed by Anthropocene in March has come good with Norwegian oil company Equinor’s CDS outperforming Total, a French oil company -
CSOs and index tranches reach sticking point as correlation gets rich
3 years ago
Credit correlation trading looks to have reached a point of inflexion, as the previous bull run at the lower end of index capital stacks has given way to caution over how much further spread compression can go. At the same time, bespoke tranche business is gaining interest but equity remains stickier to sell at the market's ultra-low spread and volatility levels -
Credit Rendezvous: ready and waiting
3 years ago
In Creditflux's quarterly review of credit, portfolio managers tell us that Inflation is likely to nudge higher but they are optimistic because dispersion will pick up and windows of volatility will emerge, rather than elongated phases of stress
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